TICKTAPE independent preflight for Polymarket

Copyability Leaderboard · Top 3 free

Who was worth copying — a frozen sample, with receipts.

This page is a dated, frozen snapshot (computed July 13, 2026) that shows the method: the same copy simulation over every active selective wallet on Polymarket, a passing grade demanded on a second independent month, survivors published. The full board is a $0.02 x402 call for your agent — no card, no account, no subscription.

Polymarket ranks traders. TickTape ranks copyability.

Their leaderboard shows who made money. Ours shows what you would have made copying them — after a 2c slippage floor and an out-of-sample month. With explicit taker fees charged, 6 of the 24 clear positive (not 7); basis note under the board.

FROZEN PREVIEW · JULY 2026 · 24 WALLETS SCREENED · 7 POSITIVE (6 NET OF FEES) · 3 SURVIVED OOS · 1 COPY · FULL BOARD VIA AGENT API

One earns COPY (S-Works). aenews2 and cnyek survive the out-of-sample month but stay WATCH — aenews2 turns marginally negative in-sample once taker fees are charged; cnyek has only nine out-of-sample trades. We would rather under- call a wallet than sell you a copy that fees quietly erase.

#WalletCopied tradesWin rate30-day copy ROI (2c-slippage basis)Prior month (OOS)Verdict
1S-Works 0xee00…cea1 13263%+11.3% (+9.2% fee-incl)+2.5%COPY B+
2aenews2 0x44c1…ebc1 6256%+1.9% (−0.9% fee-incl)+17.2%WATCH fee-fragile in-sample
3cnyek 0x6501…1220 4166%+14.7% (+12.4% fee-incl)+13.5% (n=9)WATCH small sample

The full ranking, receipts, and the do-not-copy list — one x402 call for your agent.

Get it via the Agent API

leaderboard · $0.02 per call, paid in USDC over x402

Basis note — corrected 2026-07-13 by our own recompute: the ROI column is net of a 2c slippage floor, not of explicit taker fees. An earlier version of this page called these numbers "after fees" — that overstated it. For S-Works the difference is +11.3% after 2c slippage; +9.2% after explicit taker fees ($14.02 on 132 trades). Fee-inclusive across all 24: 6 clear positive, not 7 — aenews2 slips to −0.9% in-sample (it survives on its +17.2% out-of-sample month). Red list is worse still: swisstony −5.7%, RN1 −4.8%.

This frozen sample shows the podium only. The CURRENT list — recomputed nightly from the tape, with an hourly delta — is never published here: it is one leaderboard call away ($0.02, x402), plus the equally valuable bottom of the table: the famous wallets that would have lost you money. A dated preview of that red list is further down this page.

Polymarket vs TickTape

Same wallets, different question.

Polymarket's leaderboard answers "who made the most money?" Ours answers the question that actually matters to you: "what would have happened if I had copied them?" Same public wallets, opposite end of the trade.

QuestionPolymarket leaderboardTickTape
What does it rank? Trader P&L or volume Simulated COPIER outcome
Whose result is it? The original trader's Yours, if you had copied
Fees & slippage Not part of the picture 2c slippage floor and explicit 2026 taker fees — both bases published
Clip-split whale entries Shown as activity First-entry mirror — what you could actually get
Independent check No Second, out-of-sample month
Copy delay No Latency sensitivity
Drawdown & concentration No In every report
Who NOT to copy No The red list

The other column is one click away: polymarket.com/leaderboard — we don't hide the competition. We start where it stops.

Latency sensitivity, in practice — corrected 2026-07-13 by our own recompute: an earlier version of this page said S-Works enters pre-game, hours before the match starts, and that 84% of its trades move less than 1 cent at a 30–60 second delay. Both claims were wrong, and we are the ones who caught it. The tape shows a bot — active 24/7, with bursts of up to 17 prints in one second — that enters late in a market's life: median first entry at 88% of the way from market creation to resolution. Measured drift: 57% of its entries move at most 1 cent within 30–60 seconds (median drift 1c); at 5 minutes, 44% stay within 1c (median 2c). The simulation's 2c slippage floor covers the median drift at both horizons.

Who NOT to copy

The red list — a preview.

The red list may be worth more than the winners — famous wallets that would have LOST a copier money. Real rows:

RED LIST · SAME MONTH, SAME SIMULATION · TWO ROWS UNLOCKED
WalletVolume rank30-day copy ROI (slippage / fee-incl)Why a copier loses
swisstony #1 · $79.8M/week −3.4% (2c slippage) / −5.7% (fee-incl) Splits one position into ~43 clips at prices a copier never gets — breadth plus fees bleed the copy.
RN1 #2 · $21.7M/week −2.5% (2c slippage) / −4.8% (fee-incl) Same execution-edge problem — the entries only exist at the whale's own prices.

The two wallets above sit at the very top of the volume leaderboard — and both would have cost a copier money in that month. The complete red list ships with every current API response (recomputed nightly) as a red_list call — $0.02 over x402, on the Agent API.

What a call buys

Humans read free. Agents pay per call.

Free means dated, frozen samples — like this page — plus the unlimited deterministic sandbox on every tool. Anything CURRENT is sold per call over x402 from the very first request: no subscription, no card, no account. Paying requires an agent (or any x402 client). HTTP 402 is the whole onboarding.

What's includedFreePer call (x402)
Ranking Top 3 wallets on this page — a dated, frozen sample Every validated wallet — leaderboard, $0.02 per call
Red list Two preview rows on this page The complete red list — red_list, $0.02 per call
Per-wallet verdict Sample audit on Wallet Audit; uncovered wallets return QUEUED free of charge Sub-second verdict with receipts for covered wallets — preflight_copy, $0.10 per call
Trying it out Deterministic sandbox (?sandbox=1) on every tool — unlimited, plus ?x402_probe=1 to inspect the price Credits: $5 = 500 credits, 12-month validity

Paid in USDC over x402, per call. Full offer on Pricing; endpoints and setup on the Agent API.

Methodology

How wallets get on the list.

The same funnel, re-run on every nightly recompute. Nobody is hand-picked in, and nobody is hand-picked out.

  1. 621,022 distinct wallets on the tape

    Every trade recorded on Polymarket over the simulation month — the same public activity anyone can watch.

  2. 55,900 with a sufficient sample

    At least 30 first entries outside the 15-minute crypto up/down markets — enough resolved copied trades in the window to grade; dozens, not a handful.

  3. 24 most-active selective candidates

    Selective means a human-scale decision cadence — roughly 5–150 first-entries a day. The screen excludes HFT and market-maker strategies, plus farming-suspects — not bot execution: a wallet that splits one decision into a burst of prints (S-Works peaks at 17 in a second) is collapsed to its first entry and stays eligible, with the burst flagged as copy-latency risk rather than grounds for exclusion.

  4. 7 positive after slippage

    $5 per trade, first-entry mirror, +2c slippage floor; 15-minute crypto up/down markets excluded. Fee-inclusive, 6 of the 24 clear positive (see the basis note under the board).

  5. 3 survived the out-of-sample month

    Survivors re-validated on the prior month — a month that played no part in selecting them. One earns COPY, two stay WATCH; those three are the board at the top of this page.

Counts computed from the tape, window Jun 12 – Jul 11, 2026.

For agents

The full board is one x402 call away.

Humans read the top 3 free. The full ranking (leaderboard, $0.02), the complete red list (red_list, $0.02) and per-wallet verdicts (preflight_copy, $0.10) ship as structured data, paid in USDC over x402 — no card, no account, no subscription. Live calls are paid from the first request; test free with ?sandbox=1 on any tool. HTTP 402 is the whole onboarding.

Point your agent at the API Pricing