TICKTAPE prediction-market data & receipts

The leaderboard shows volume. The tape shows who's worth copying.

We have recorded Polymarket's trade tape and order-book changes since December 2025 — every gap documented. Then we simulated copying the most active wallets, with real fees and slippage. Most would have cost you money. The data knows which ones.

COPY SIMULATION · 24 MOST-ACTIVE WALLETS · 30 DAYS · $5 PER TRADE made you money (7)lost you money (17)
Each bar = one real wallet, first-entry copy simulation net of 2026 taker fees and slippage, 15-minute crypto up/down markets excluded. Hover or tap any bar. The survivors are re-validated on a second, earlier month before we call them copyable — that's what the reports are for.
200+ days
of trade tape, Dec 2025 → today
40+ GB
compressed order-book stream (crypto + sports)
4M+ /day
trades recorded with trader identity
0
other sources sell this history — if it wasn't recorded, it's gone

Products

Three things, honestly priced.

Launch pricing. Everything ships with schema docs, provenance notes, and known gaps declared up front.

The wedge

Wallet Copyability Report

$9 / wallet

Not "is this wallet profitable" — what would you have earned copying it: first-entry mirroring, pessimistic slippage, 2026 taker fees, in-sample and out-of-sample months.

  • Win rate, ROI, drawdown, category mix
  • Copy-latency sensitivity
  • Delivered in minutes, from the tape
See a full sample report →
The habit

Copyability Leaderboard

$29 / month

The living answer to "who is worth copying this month" — every wallet backtested weekly with the same rules, survivors tracked forward.

  • Weekly ranked list with full receipts
  • Free teaser edition to your inbox
  • API access (coming)
See this week's issue →

New category · For AI agents & bots

Plug the tape into your agent.

Trading bots and AI assistants see Polymarket only as it is right now. Our MCP server + skill gives them memory and judgment — six tools, from copyability(wallet) to arb_reality_check(market_type):

Agent API & AI Skill — from $49/mo, MCP server open source →

The raw material

Order-book history, tick by tick.

Everything above is computed from this: the full depth of both sides of every market, on every change. Here is one real window from the archive — a BTC 15-minute market collapsing from a coin-flip to zero:

BTC-UPDOWN-15M · 2026-07-10 14:15 UTC · one window from the archive Best bidBest ask
Top: best bid/ask each ~5 s. Bottom: resting depth, top 5 levels each side, bids up, asks down. Real recorded data — hover or tap to inspect. This exists for every window since January 2026, and for NBA/NHL/NFL game markets through June.

Receipts

We publish what loses, too.

Every number below comes from the same engine we run on our own money. Sample report, real wallet, real months:

COPYABILITY REPORT · wallet 0xee00…cea1 ("S-Works") · excerpt
WindowCopied tradesWin rateROI (net of fees + slippage)
Jun 12 – Jul 1113263%+11.3%
May 12 – Jun 11 (out-of-sample)10764%+2.5%

Of 24 candidate wallets screened the same way, 17 were net-negative to copy — including the two biggest whales by volume. The report tells you which is which.

AUTOPSY #1 · "The arbitrage that dies in a millisecond"

98% of 15-minute crypto windows flash a guaranteed-profit moment — YES + NO asks summing under $1.00. We replayed 43,297 such episodes from the archive. Median lifetime: one millisecond. Episodes lasting a full second: zero. If a bot promises you this edge, you now know what to ask them.

Get the launch list.

First datasets and reports ship to the waitlist first, with launch pricing locked in.

no spam — one e-mail when we launch · or write to hello@ticktape.cc